Monero Valuation Musings
EDIT: I neglected a critical aspect of this analysis by not paying proper attention to the concept of stock-vs-flow. I am especially grateful to the r/monero subscriber who very kindly and extremely quickly corrected me on these points.
The net result, as it turns out, is still not too dissimilar from the results below... especially when variability of assumptions is high. I recommend you check out his response on the sub.
I'll try leaving this article here (as a monument/remind to me of my error) but wrap it with the conclusion of, as he put it- 'broad acceptance in the global black market = moon for monero/privacy coins no matter how calculated.'
note to self: entitling something 'musings' doesn't mean you can't scrub it better than you did here.
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In the course of responding to a comment posted on my blog yesterday (response in the comments section to ‘Sport Coach’, on this article) I dug up some interesting information around the size of black-market economies - which got me to thinking about the prospects for privacy coins more broadly and the numbers associated with them.
The net result, as it turns out, is still not too dissimilar from the results below... especially when variability of assumptions is high. I recommend you check out his response on the sub.
I'll try leaving this article here (as a monument/remind to me of my error) but wrap it with the conclusion of, as he put it- 'broad acceptance in the global black market = moon for monero/privacy coins no matter how calculated.'
note to self: entitling something 'musings' doesn't mean you can't scrub it better than you did here.
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In the course of responding to a comment posted on my blog yesterday (response in the comments section to ‘Sport Coach’, on this article) I dug up some interesting information around the size of black-market economies - which got me to thinking about the prospects for privacy coins more broadly and the numbers associated with them.
In crypto-land broadly, there is currently a huge amount of
uncertainty as to which coins will be the ‘winners’ – that is, which will have enduring
and significant presence. The action today
is Bitcoin versus Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Gold... with no small amount of suspected
price manipulation all around I might add.
In any case, while I remain optimistic that the broader
public will eventually come around to Monero (appreciating it for its moneyness
characteristics) I recognize that there are many who feel it will always be a ‘dark
coin’ – catering to the black-market, whether than be un-official,
non-reporting, or otherwise illegal aspects of economies.
I won’t even bother here with trying to untangle the morass
that equates behavior outside the purview of government with things that are ‘bad’
(though I will give the link to this strip which I think is terrific).
However, even if we go down the path of assuming that Monero does have future only as a ‘dark coin’, the
metrics are quite interesting.
While measures of black-market activity are notoriously
unreliable, it is generally accepted that most developed countries have a
black-market economy each year ranging in size from 15-30% of GDP. For less
developed countries, the estimates go up from there. Given this, if we ascribe
a flat 15% of global GDP to ‘black market’ activities, we are probably being
conservative. Let’s do it anyway, and further extrapolate that 15% of GDP
activity is supported by an equivalent supporting money supply contribution –
so 15% of global M3 is held/used in ‘the black market’
Now, let’s make a few further assumptions and see where it
leads:
In the next 5 years,
80% of global money will be digital.
This isn’t hard to accept for most people. If it were up to
some people who want to ‘ban cash’, the number would be 100% and time horizon
would be a lot sooner. Nevertheless, let’s stick with these numbers as hopefully
accepted as reasonable.
In this time
period, the percentage of all human economic activity considered ‘illicit’ will
not dip lower than globally 15% of all transactions.
Considering that regulation and control seems to be
increasing at a rapid clip, making more and more otherwise innocuous activities
illegal (unless proper permitting, taxes, reporting, etc. are achieved) – this
is probably also reasonable if not a bit conservative.
Global M3 stays
constant at about $80 trillion equivalent.
We could argue it should be either higher or lower, but let’s
assume it stays flat for simplicity. It shouldn’t materially change our
calculus.
The best privacy
coin will garner no less than 50% of the relevant digital market.
Admittedly, this is a bit of a loaded statement. How we you
define ‘best’ is critical. Let’s for now assume it’s a generally favourable combination
of ubiquity and true fungibility/anonymity.
Given these assumptions now, let’s do some math:
$80 trillion global M3
X
80% Digital money
X
15% ‘black market’
X
50% penetration of leading privacy coin
= $4.8 Trillion.
If we assume for the sake of argument that this ‘best
privacy coin’ is Monero, then we may arrive at a per-coin value of $240,000 –
or roughly 600x the current price. Not a bad return I think, particularly as it
is arguably lower risk than many other coins with a ‘grand vision’… this
analysis is not dependent on jockeying for best position with government
acceptance, smart-contract supremacy, or some other functional utility which
may be either deprecated or usurped. It is instead dependent upon a facet of
human society remaining present which has done so for thousands of years – an unofficial,
‘black market’ economy.
If the broader public does ‘catch on’ to the inherent
weaknesses of other coins lacking privacy/fungibility, then the returns could
of course be more favorable – but in terms of sleeping at night, I’d venture to
say that it’s generally a safe bet to assume that there will always be demand
for ‘black market’ items. As such, even looking at Monero from the (in my mind
unlikely) prospect of never growing past a libertarian V-for-Vendetta oasis, it
presents quite an interesting value proposition.
Perhaps I’m seeing Monero through rose-colored glasses - that’s
certainly a possibility. If I am, I humbly ask the reader to share any
critique/criticism - but as far as ‘big picture, back of the envelope’ analyses
go, I don’t think this one is bad.
Finally, just one more note on investment analyses and simplicity.
Back ‘in the day’ when I was first professional tasked with developing
traditional investment theses, I thought that a ‘good’ analysis would have at
least 10 pages of historical and projected financials – not to mention all
manner of detail and usually full financial statement model flowthrough. I was
a bit taken aback when a very successful professional investor friend shared
one of his models. It was in excel,
but fit on one page. One page. And guess what – that particular thesis/trade?
Worked out like a charm.
Don’t confuse length of analysis with quality. Some of the
most useless investment reports I’ve ever had distributed to me (and which I’m
sure no one ever really read) were
also the longest and seemingly most ‘professional’
reports. Again, in ‘the old days’, there
was a wall-street maxim that if you couldn’t fit your investment thesis on the
one-page space that the old Bloomberg terminal provided as an
email/distribution mechanism, you were widely considered to be 'doing it wrong'.
Cheers,
Izzy
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āļุāļāđāļ็āļāļŠิ่āļāđāļĢāļāđāļĨāļĒ āļี่āđāļĄ่āđāļāļĒāļāļģāđāļŦ้āļāļāļีāļāļāļģāļāļ§āļāđāļĄ่āļ้āļāļĒāļิāļāļŦāļ§ัāļāļ็āļืāļ āļ้āļāđāļāļāļี่āļĄāļēāļāļĄāļēāļĒ āļĢāļ§āļĄāļั้āļāļ āļēāļāļี่āļāļēāļĄ āļĄีāļัāļ§āļĨāļ°āļāļĢāļี่āļิāļĒāļĄāļี่āļ่āļēāļĒ pgslot āđāļ้āļĄีāđāļ§้āđāļŦ้āđāļื่āļāđāļิ่āļĄāļāļ§āļēāļĄāļŠāļุāļāļŠāļāļēāļāđāļĨ้āļ§āļ็āļāļ§āļēāļĄāļัāļāđāļิāļāļŠāļģāļŦāļĢัāļāđāļāļāļēāļĢāđāļĨ่āļ
2. āļŠāļēāļĄāļēāļĢāļāđāļĨ่āļāļ้āļ§āļĒāļุāļāļี่āļ่āļģ
āđāļāļĄāļŠāļĨ็āļāļāļŦāļĨāļēāļĒāđāđāļāļĄāļāļ°āđāļŦ้āđāļĨ่āļāļ้āļ§āļĒāļāļēāļĢāļ§āļēāļāđāļิāļĄāļัāļāļี่ 100 āļāļēāļ āļ้āļēāļุāļāļĄีāļุāļāđāļีāļĒāļāđāļ่āļŦāļĨัāļāļĢ้āļāļĒ āđāļ่āļ§่āļēāļุāļāļ็āļāļ°āļ้āļāļāļูāļ้āļ§āļĒāļ§่āļēāđāļāļĄāđāļĨāļ°āļ็āļāļēāļŠิāđāļāļāļāļāđāļĨāļ์āļี่āđāļĨืāļāļ āļāļ°āļāļģāļŦāļāļāđāļāļēāđāļ§้āļี่āđāļ่āļēāđāļĢ āđāļĄ้āļāļĢāļ°āļั้āļāļุāļāđāļĄ่āļāļģāđāļ็āļāļ้āļāļāļāļĨุ้āļĄāđāļ āļ้āļēāļุāļāļĄีāđāļิāļāļāļĒู่ 100 āļāļēāļ āđāļĨ้āļ§āļĨāļāđāļĨ่āļāļ้āļ§āļĒāļĒāļāļāļāļĒ่āļēāļāļ่āļģ āļุāļāļ็āļŠāļēāļĄāļēāļĢāļāđāļĨ่āļāđāļāļĄāļี้āđāļ้ āļĢāļ§āļĄāļั้āļāļĄีāļŠิāļāļิ์āļĨุ้āļāđāļิāļāļĢāļēāļāļ§ัāļĨāļึāļāļŦāļĨัāļāļัāļāļัāļāļāļĒ่āļēāļāļĒิ่āļāļāļĢิāļāđ pgslot
3. āļĄีāđāļāļ§āđāļāļĄāļี่āļĄีāļāļ§āļēāļĄāļāļģāļŠāļĄัāļĒ
āļ้āļ§āļĒāđāļāļāđāļāđāļĨāļĒีāļัāļāļุāļัāļāļāļĢัāļāļāļĢุāļāđāļāđāļ้āđāļāļĨāļ็āđāļĨāļĒāļāļģāđāļŦ้āļัāļ§āđāļāļĄāļĄีāļāļ§āļēāļĄāļāļģāļŠāļĄัāļĒāđāļิ่āļĄāļึ้āļāđāļĢื่āļāļĒāđ āļāļēāļāļี่āļุāļāļāļģāđāļ็āļāļāļ°āļ้āļāļāđāļิāļāļāļēāļāđāļāđāļĨ่āļāļี่āļāļēāļŠิāđāļ āļāļģāđāļŦ้āļ่āļēāļāļĄีāļั้āļāļĒัāļāļāļēāļĢāđāļŠี่āļĒāļāđāļĨāļ°āļ็āļāļēāļāļāļĢั้āļāļāļēāļāļāļ°āđāļĄ่āļูāļāļāļāļŦāļĄāļēāļĒ āđāļĄ้āļāļĢāļ°āļั้āļāđāļāļ่āļ§āļāđāļ§āļĨāļēāļี้āļāļ§āļāđāļĢāļēāļĄีāđāļāļāđāļāđāļĨāļĒีāļัāļāļŠāļĄัāļĒāđāļิ่āļĄāļึ้āļāđāļĢื่āļāļĒāđāļุāļāđāļĄ่āļ้āļāļāđāļŠี่āļĒāļāļี่āļāļ°āđāļิāļāļāļēāļāđāļāļāļēāļŠิāđāļāļีāļāļ่āļāđāļ āđāļ§้āļāđāļ่āļāļ§āļāđāļĢāļēāļāļ°āļĄีāđāļāļĄāļี่āļĨ้āļģāļĒุāļāļĨ้āļ§āļāļ§āļāđāļĢāļēāļĒัāļāļĄีāļāļ§āļēāļĄāļĄāļēāļāļĄāļēāļĒāļŦāļĨāļēāļĒāđāļāļĨัāļāļĐāļāļ°āļāļāļāđāļāļĄāļีāļāļ้āļ§āļĒ
4. āļŠāļēāļĄāļēāļĢāļāđāļĨ่āļāļ่āļēāļāļ§ัāļŠāļุāļุāļāļāļĢāļ์āļิāđāļĨ็āļāļāļĢāļāļิāļāļŠ์āđāļ้
āđāļāļĄ pg slot āļāļāļāļāļ§āļāđāļĢāļēāļŠāļēāļĄāļēāļĢāļāđāļĨ่āļāđāļ้āļ่āļēāļāļāļēāļ āđāļāļĢāļĻัāļāļ์āđāļāļĨื่āļāļāļี่ āđāļ๊āļāļุ๊āļ āļāļāļĄāļิāļ§āđāļāļāļĢ์ āļื่āļāđāļีāļāļĄāļēāļāļĄāļēāļĒ āļĢāļ§āļĄāļั้āļāļĒัāļāđāļĄ่āļ้āļāļāđāļŦāļĨāļ āļŠāļēāļĄāļēāļĢāļāđāļĨ่āļāļ่āļēāļāđāļāļĨāļāļāļĢ์āļāļĄāļāļēāļĢāđāļŦ้āļāļĢิāļāļēāļĢāļั้āļāļŦāļึ่āļāđāļāļāļāļāļี้āđāļ้āļั้āļāļŦāļĄāļāļั้āļāļāļ§āļ āļึ่āļāļāļģāđāļ็āļāļ้āļāļāļāļĨ่āļēāļ§āļ§่āļē āđāļāļĢāļĻัāļāļ์āđāļāļĨื่āļāļāļี่āđāļ็āļāļี่āļื่āļāļāļāļāļŠāļģāļŦāļĢัāļāļāļēāļĢāđāļāļēāļĄāļēāđāļĨ่āļāđāļāļĄāļŠāļĨ็āļāļāļāļāļāđāļĨāļ์āđāļĒāļāļ°āļี่āļŠุāļāđāļื่āļāļāļāļēāļāđāļāļĢāļĻัāļāļ์āđāļāļĨื่āļāļāļี่āđāļ็āļāļāļ°āđāļĢāļี่āļāļģāđāļāļēāļŠāļāļēāļĒ āļ้āļēāļŦāļēāļāļ§่āļēāļุāļāļĢāļāļāļāļĒāļิāļāđāļāđāļāļāļุāļāļ็āļŠāļēāļĄāļēāļĢāļāļืāļāđāļāļĢāļĻัāļāļ์āļึ้āļāļĄāļēāļั่āļāđāļāļĄāļŠāļĨ็āļāļ āđāļ้āļุāļāļāļĒ่āļēāļĨืāļĄāļ§่āļēāđāļีāļĒāļāđāļ่āđāļĄ่āļี่āļāļēāļีāļ็āļŠāļēāļĄāļēāļĢāļāļāļēāļุāļāđāļ็āļāļāļāļĄั่āļāļĄีāđāļ้ āļāļēāļāļāļēāļĢāđāļĨ่āļāļŠāļĨ็āļāļāļāļāļāđāļĨāļ์
5. āđāļāļāđāļ็āļāļāļāļāđāļāļāđāļĄ่āļĒั้āļ pg slot
āļāļāļāđāļŦāļืāļāļāļēāļāļี่āļāļ°āļĄีāļāļēāļĢāđāļŦ้āļāļĢิāļāļēāļĢāļี่āļĒāļāļāđāļĒี่āļĒāļĄāđāļĨ้āļ§ āļĒัāļāđāļāļāđāļāļัāļŠāļĢāļ§āļĄāļั้āļāđāļ็āļāļāļāļāļี่āļāļāļāđāļĨāļĒāļĄāļēāļุ้āļĄāļĄāļēāļāļĄāļēāļĒāđāļึāļāļāļēāļāđāļŦāļāļāļ°āļĄāļē āđāļ่āļ§่āļēāļŦāļēāļāļ§่āļēāļĄāļēāđāļĨ้āļ§āļĄัāļāļāļ°āđāļāļĨี่āļĒāļāđāļāļĨāļāļุāļāđāļ็āļāļāļāļĄั่āļāļั่āļāđāļāđāļāđāļĨāļ§āļ้āļēāļĄāļืāļāļāļĒ่āļēāļāļĒิ่āļāļāļĢิāļāđ āđāļĨ้āļ§āļ็āļุāļāļ็āđāļĄ่āļāļēāļāļāļ°āļŦāļēāļāļĒ่āļēāļāļี้āđāļ้āđāļāđāļāļĄāļื่āļāđāđāļāļāļēāļŠิāđāļāļāļāļāđāļĨāļ์āđāļ่āđ
āđāļ็āļāļĒัāļāđāļāļัāļāļ้āļēāļ āļ āļēāļĒāļŦāļĨัāļāļี่āļุāļāđāļ้āļ่āļēāļāļāļāļāļ§āļēāļĄāļāļāļāļāļ§āļāđāļĢāļēāđāļĨ้āļ§ āļāļāļāđāļĨāļĒāļ§่āļēāļุ้āļĄāļี่āļāļ°āđāļĨ่āļāļĄāļēāļāļĄāļēāļĒāđāļĄีāļ้āļāļีāļี่āļĄāļēāļāļĄāļēāļĒāļāļāļēāļāļี้ āđāļĨ้āļ§āļ็āļĒัāļāļĄāļēāļัāļāļāļēāļĢāđāļŦ้āļāļĢิāļāļēāļĢāļี่āļีāļีāļ āļ้āļēāļŦāļēāļāļ§่āļēāļุāļāļ้āļāļāļāļēāļĢāđāļāļāļัāļāļāļ§āļēāļĄāļŠāļุāļāļŠāļāļēāļāļĢ่āļēāđāļĢิāļāļĢāļ§āļĄāļั้āļāļāļ§āļēāļĄāļĄāļēāļāļĄāļēāļĒāļŦāļĨāļēāļĒāļีāļāđāļĒāļāļ°āđāļĒāļ°āļี่āļāļāļĒāļุāļāļāļĒู่ āļāļģāļ้āļāļāđāļĨืāļāļāļāļัāļāđāļāļĄ āļŠāļĨ็āļāļāļāļāļāđāļĨāļ์āļāļ pgslot āđāļีāļĒāļāđāļ่āļั้āļ