Monero Valuation Musings

EDIT: I neglected a critical aspect of this analysis by not paying proper attention to the concept of stock-vs-flow. I am especially grateful to the r/monero subscriber who very kindly and extremely quickly corrected me on these points. 

The net result, as it turns out, is still not too dissimilar from the results below... especially when variability of assumptions is high. I recommend you check out his response on the sub. 

I'll try leaving this article here (as a monument/remind to me of my error) but wrap it with the conclusion of, as he put it- 'broad acceptance in the global black market = moon for monero/privacy coins no matter how calculated.' 

note to self: entitling something 'musings' doesn't mean you can't scrub it better than you did here.

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In the course of responding to a comment posted on my blog yesterday (response in the comments section to ‘Sport Coach’, on this article)  I dug up some interesting information around the size of black-market economies  - which got me to thinking about the prospects for privacy coins more broadly and the numbers associated with them.

In crypto-land broadly, there is currently a huge amount of uncertainty as to which coins will be the ‘winners’ – that is, which will have enduring and significant presence. The action today is Bitcoin versus Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Gold... with no small amount of suspected price manipulation all around I might add.

In any case, while I remain optimistic that the broader public will eventually come around to Monero (appreciating it for its moneyness characteristics) I recognize that there are many who feel it will always be a ‘dark coin’ – catering to the black-market, whether than be un-official, non-reporting, or otherwise illegal aspects of economies.

I won’t even bother here with trying to untangle the morass that equates behavior outside the purview of government with things that are ‘bad’ (though I will give the link to this strip which I think is terrific). However, even if we go down the path of assuming that Monero does have future only as a ‘dark coin’, the metrics are quite interesting.

While measures of black-market activity are notoriously unreliable, it is generally accepted that most developed countries have a black-market economy each year ranging in size from 15-30% of GDP. For less developed countries, the estimates go up from there. Given this, if we ascribe a flat 15% of global GDP to ‘black market’ activities, we are probably being conservative. Let’s do it anyway, and further extrapolate that 15% of GDP activity is supported by an equivalent supporting money supply contribution – so 15% of global M3 is held/used in ‘the black market’

Now, let’s make a few further assumptions and see where it leads:

In the next 5 years, 80% of global money will be digital.
This isn’t hard to accept for most people. If it were up to some people who want to ‘ban cash’, the number would be 100% and time horizon would be a lot sooner. Nevertheless, let’s stick with these numbers as hopefully accepted as reasonable.

In this time period, the percentage of all human economic activity considered ‘illicit’ will not dip lower than globally 15% of all transactions.
Considering that regulation and control seems to be increasing at a rapid clip, making more and more otherwise innocuous activities illegal (unless proper permitting, taxes, reporting, etc. are achieved) – this is probably also reasonable if not a bit conservative.

Global M3 stays constant at about $80 trillion equivalent.
We could argue it should be either higher or lower, but let’s assume it stays flat for simplicity. It shouldn’t materially change our calculus.
The best privacy coin will garner no less than 50% of the relevant digital market.
Admittedly, this is a bit of a loaded statement. How we you define ‘best’ is critical. Let’s for now assume it’s a generally favourable combination of ubiquity and true fungibility/anonymity.

Given these assumptions now, let’s do some math:

$80 trillion global M3
X
80% Digital money
X
15% ‘black market’
X
50% penetration of leading privacy coin
= $4.8 Trillion.

If we assume for the sake of argument that this ‘best privacy coin’ is Monero, then we may arrive at a per-coin value of $240,000 – or roughly 600x the current price. Not a bad return I think, particularly as it is arguably lower risk than many other coins with a ‘grand vision’… this analysis is not dependent on jockeying for best position with government acceptance, smart-contract supremacy, or some other functional utility which may be either deprecated or usurped. It is instead dependent upon a facet of human society remaining present which has done so for thousands of years – an unofficial, ‘black market’ economy.

If the broader public does ‘catch on’ to the inherent weaknesses of other coins lacking privacy/fungibility, then the returns could of course be more favorable – but in terms of sleeping at night, I’d venture to say that it’s generally a safe bet to assume that there will always be demand for ‘black market’ items. As such, even looking at Monero from the (in my mind unlikely) prospect of never growing past a libertarian V-for-Vendetta oasis, it presents quite an interesting value proposition.

Perhaps I’m seeing Monero through rose-colored glasses - that’s certainly a possibility. If I am, I humbly ask the reader to share any critique/criticism - but as far as ‘big picture, back of the envelope’ analyses go, I don’t think this one is bad.

Finally, just one more note on investment analyses and simplicity. Back ‘in the day’ when I was first professional tasked with developing traditional investment theses, I thought that a ‘good’ analysis would have at least 10 pages of historical and projected financials – not to mention all manner of detail and usually full financial statement model flowthrough. I was a bit taken aback when a very successful professional investor friend shared one of his models. It was in excel, but fit on one page. One page. And guess what – that particular thesis/trade? Worked out like a charm.

Don’t confuse length of analysis with quality. Some of the most useless investment reports I’ve ever had distributed to me (and which I’m sure no one ever really read) were also the longest and seemingly most ‘professional’ reports.  Again, in ‘the old days’, there was a wall-street maxim that if you couldn’t fit your investment thesis on the one-page space that the old Bloomberg terminal provided as an email/distribution mechanism, you were widely considered to be 'doing it wrong'.

Cheers,
Izzy


Finally, the most appreciated form of support is an email or message of thanks/encouragment.... but as a few people have asked me to include it, a monero address that may receive donations if you feel so inclined is :
41fksK8rNJ7VUWHr5yW58C75oAJbL8mEh3ytfLDucVq3StwTudzbGPyQ75Sj3BeqvNjKtw3Mn5Gni5nD62aWZCiDNjaPY8k

 thanks for reading!


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    āļˆุāļ”āđāļ‚็āļ‡āļŠิ่āļ‡āđāļĢāļāđ€āļĨāļĒ āļ—ี่āđ„āļĄ่āđ€āļ„āļĒāļ—āļģāđƒāļŦ้āļ„āļ™āļ­ีāļāļˆāļģāļ™āļ§āļ™āđ„āļĄ่āļ™้āļ­āļĒāļœิāļ”āļŦāļ§ัāļ‡āļ็āļ„ืāļ­ āļ•้āļ™āđāļšāļšāļ—ี่āļĄāļēāļāļĄāļēāļĒ āļĢāļ§āļĄāļ—ั้āļ‡āļ āļēāļžāļ—ี่āļ‡āļēāļĄ āļĄีāļ•ัāļ§āļĨāļ°āļ„āļĢāļ—ี่āļ™ิāļĒāļĄāļ—ี่āļ„่āļēāļĒ pgslot āđ„āļ”้āļĄีāđ„āļ§้āđƒāļŦ้āđ€āļžื่āļ­āđ€āļžิ่āļĄāļ„āļ§āļēāļĄāļŠāļ™ุāļāļŠāļ™āļēāļ™āđāļĨ้āļ§āļ็āļ„āļ§āļēāļĄāļšัāļ™āđ€āļ—ิāļ‡āļŠāļģāļŦāļĢัāļšāđƒāļ™āļāļēāļĢāđ€āļĨ่āļ™
    2. āļŠāļēāļĄāļēāļĢāļ–āđ€āļĨ่āļ™āļ”้āļ§āļĒāļ—ุāļ™āļ—ี่āļ•่āļģ
    āđ€āļāļĄāļŠāļĨ็āļ­āļ•āļŦāļĨāļēāļĒāđ†āđ€āļāļĄāļˆāļ°āđƒāļŦ้āđ€āļĨ่āļ™āļ”้āļ§āļĒāļāļēāļĢāļ§āļēāļ‡āđ€āļ”ิāļĄāļžัāļ™āļ—ี่ 100 āļšāļēāļ— āļ–้āļēāļ„ุāļ“āļĄีāļ—ุāļ™āđ€āļžีāļĒāļ‡āđāļ„่āļŦāļĨัāļāļĢ้āļ­āļĒ āđāļ•่āļ§่āļēāļ„ุāļ“āļ็āļˆāļ°āļ•้āļ­āļ‡āļ”ูāļ”้āļ§āļĒāļ§่āļēāđ€āļāļĄāđāļĨāļ°āļ็āļ„āļēāļŠิāđ‚āļ™āļ­āļ­āļ™āđ„āļĨāļ™์āļ—ี่āđ€āļĨืāļ­āļ āļˆāļ°āļāļģāļŦāļ™āļ”āđ€āļ­āļēāđ„āļ§้āļ—ี่āđ€āļ—่āļēāđ„āļĢ āđāļĄ้āļāļĢāļ°āļ™ั้āļ™āļ„ุāļ“āđ„āļĄ่āļˆāļģāđ€āļ›็āļ™āļ•้āļ­āļ‡āļāļĨุ้āļĄāđƒāļˆ āļ–้āļēāļ„ุāļ“āļĄีāđ€āļ‡ิāļ™āļ­āļĒู่ 100 āļšāļēāļ— āđāļĨ้āļ§āļĨāļ‡āđ€āļĨ่āļ™āļ”้āļ§āļĒāļĒāļ­āļ”āļ­āļĒ่āļēāļ‡āļ•่āļģ āļ„ุāļ“āļ็āļŠāļēāļĄāļēāļĢāļ–āđ€āļĨ่āļ™āđ€āļāļĄāļ™ี้āđ„āļ”้ āļĢāļ§āļĄāļ—ั้āļ‡āļĄีāļŠิāļ—āļ˜ิ์āļĨุ้āļ™āđ€āļ‡ิāļ™āļĢāļēāļ‡āļ§ัāļĨāļ–ึāļ‡āļŦāļĨัāļāļžัāļ™āļัāļ™āļ­āļĒ่āļēāļ‡āļĒิ่āļ‡āļˆāļĢิāļ‡āđ† pgslot
    3. āļĄีāđāļ™āļ§āđ€āļāļĄāļ—ี่āļĄีāļ„āļ§āļēāļĄāļ™āļģāļŠāļĄัāļĒ
    āļ”้āļ§āļĒāđ€āļ—āļ„āđ‚āļ™āđ‚āļĨāļĒีāļ›ัāļˆāļˆุāļšัāļ™āļ›āļĢัāļšāļ›āļĢุāļ‡āđ„āļ›āđ„āļ”้āđ„āļāļĨāļ็āđ€āļĨāļĒāļ—āļģāđƒāļŦ้āļ•ัāļ§āđ€āļāļĄāļĄีāļ„āļ§āļēāļĄāļ™āļģāļŠāļĄัāļĒāđ€āļžิ่āļĄāļ‚ึ้āļ™āđ€āļĢื่āļ­āļĒāđ† āļˆāļēāļāļ—ี่āļ„ุāļ“āļˆāļģāđ€āļ›็āļ™āļˆāļ°āļ•้āļ­āļ‡āđ€āļ”ิāļ™āļ—āļēāļ‡āđ„āļ›āđ€āļĨ่āļ™āļ—ี่āļ„āļēāļŠิāđ‚āļ™ āļ—āļģāđƒāļŦ้āļ—่āļēāļ™āļĄีāļ—ั้āļ‡āļĒัāļ‡āļāļēāļĢāđ€āļŠี่āļĒāļ‡āđāļĨāļ°āļ็āļšāļēāļ‡āļ„āļĢั้āļ‡āļ­āļēāļˆāļˆāļ°āđ„āļĄ่āļ–ูāļāļāļŽāļŦāļĄāļēāļĒ āđāļĄ้āļāļĢāļ°āļ™ั้āļ™āđƒāļ™āļŠ่āļ§āļ‡āđ€āļ§āļĨāļēāļ™ี้āļžāļ§āļāđ€āļĢāļēāļĄีāđ€āļ—āļ„āđ‚āļ™āđ‚āļĨāļĒีāļ—ัāļ™āļŠāļĄัāļĒāđ€āļžิ่āļĄāļ‚ึ้āļ™āđ€āļĢื่āļ­āļĒāđ†āļ„ุāļ“āđ„āļĄ่āļ•้āļ­āļ‡āđ€āļŠี่āļĒāļ‡āļ—ี่āļˆāļ°āđ€āļ”ิāļ™āļ—āļēāļ‡āđ„āļ›āļ„āļēāļŠิāđ‚āļ™āļ­ีāļāļ•่āļ­āđ„āļ› āđ€āļ§้āļ™āđāļ•่āļžāļ§āļāđ€āļĢāļēāļˆāļ°āļĄีāđ€āļāļĄāļ—ี่āļĨ้āļģāļĒุāļ„āļĨ้āļ§āļžāļ§āļāđ€āļĢāļēāļĒัāļ‡āļĄีāļ„āļ§āļēāļĄāļĄāļēāļāļĄāļēāļĒāļŦāļĨāļēāļĒāđƒāļ™āļĨัāļāļĐāļ“āļ°āļ‚āļ­āļ‡āđ€āļāļĄāļ­ีāļāļ”้āļ§āļĒ
    4. āļŠāļēāļĄāļēāļĢāļ–āđ€āļĨ่āļ™āļœ่āļēāļ™āļ§ัāļŠāļ”ุāļ­ุāļ›āļāļĢāļ“์āļ­ิāđ€āļĨ็āļāļ—āļĢāļ­āļ™ิāļāļŠ์āđ„āļ”้
    āđ€āļāļĄ pg slot āļ‚āļ­āļ‡āļžāļ§āļāđ€āļĢāļēāļŠāļēāļĄāļēāļĢāļ–āđ€āļĨ่āļ™āđ„āļ”้āļœ่āļēāļ™āļ—āļēāļ‡ āđ‚āļ—āļĢāļĻัāļžāļ—์āđ€āļ„āļĨื่āļ­āļ™āļ—ี่ āđ‚āļ™๊āļ•āļšุ๊āļ„ āļ„āļ­āļĄāļžิāļ§āđ€āļ•āļ­āļĢ์ āļ­ื่āļ™āđ†āļ­ีāļāļĄāļēāļāļĄāļēāļĒ āļĢāļ§āļĄāļ—ั้āļ‡āļĒัāļ‡āđ„āļĄ่āļ•้āļ­āļ‡āđ‚āļŦāļĨāļ” āļŠāļēāļĄāļēāļĢāļ–āđ€āļĨ่āļ™āļœ่āļēāļ™āđāļžāļĨāļ•āļŸāļĢ์āļ­āļĄāļāļēāļĢāđƒāļŦ้āļšāļĢิāļāļēāļĢāļŠั้āļ™āļŦāļ™ึ่āļ‡āđƒāļ™āļ•āļ­āļ™āļ™ี้āđ„āļ”้āļ—ั้āļ‡āļŦāļĄāļ”āļ—ั้āļ‡āļ›āļ§āļ‡ āļ‹ึ่āļ‡āļˆāļģāđ€āļ›็āļ™āļ•้āļ­āļ‡āļāļĨ่āļēāļ§āļ§่āļē āđ‚āļ—āļĢāļĻัāļžāļ—์āđ€āļ„āļĨื่āļ­āļ™āļ—ี่āđ€āļ›็āļ™āļ—ี่āļŠื่āļ™āļŠāļ­āļšāļŠāļģāļŦāļĢัāļšāļāļēāļĢāđ€āļ­āļēāļĄāļēāđ€āļĨ่āļ™āđ€āļāļĄāļŠāļĨ็āļ­āļ•āļ­āļ­āļ™āđ„āļĨāļ™์āđ€āļĒāļ­āļ°āļ—ี่āļŠุāļ”āđ€āļ™ื่āļ­āļ‡āļˆāļēāļāđ‚āļ—āļĢāļĻัāļžāļ—์āđ€āļ„āļĨื่āļ­āļ™āļ—ี่āđ€āļ›็āļ™āļ­āļ°āđ„āļĢāļ—ี่āļ™āļģāđ€āļ­āļēāļŠāļšāļēāļĒ āļ–้āļēāļŦāļēāļāļ§่āļēāļ„ุāļ“āļĢāļ­āļ„āļ­āļĒāļ•ิāļ”āđ„āļŸāđāļ”āļ‡āļ„ุāļ“āļ็āļŠāļēāļĄāļēāļĢāļ–āļ–ืāļ­āđ‚āļ—āļĢāļĻัāļžāļ—์āļ‚ึ้āļ™āļĄāļēāļ›ั่āļ™āđ€āļāļĄāļŠāļĨ็āļ­āļ• āđ„āļ”้āļ„ุāļ“āļ­āļĒ่āļēāļĨืāļĄāļ§่āļēāđ€āļžีāļĒāļ‡āđāļ„่āđ„āļĄ่āļี่āļ™āļēāļ—ีāļ็āļŠāļēāļĄāļēāļĢāļ–āļžāļēāļ„ุāļ“āđ€āļ›็āļ™āļ„āļ™āļĄั่āļ‡āļĄีāđ„āļ”้ āļˆāļēāļāļāļēāļĢāđ€āļĨ่āļ™āļŠāļĨ็āļ­āļ•āļ­āļ­āļ™āđ„āļĨāļ™์
    5. āđāļˆāļāđāļˆ็āļ„āļžāļ­āļ•āđāļšāļšāđ„āļĄ่āļĒั้āļ‡ pg slot
    āļ™āļ­āļāđ€āļŦāļ™ืāļ­āļˆāļēāļāļ—ี่āļˆāļ°āļĄีāļāļēāļĢāđƒāļŦ้āļšāļĢิāļāļēāļĢāļ—ี่āļĒāļ­āļ”āđ€āļĒี่āļĒāļĄāđāļĨ้āļ§ āļĒัāļ‡āđāļˆāļāđ‚āļšāļ™ัāļŠāļĢāļ§āļĄāļ—ั้āļ‡āđāļˆ็āļ„āļžāļ­āļ•āļ—ี่āļšāļ­āļāđ€āļĨāļĒāļĄāļēāļ„ุ้āļĄāļĄāļēāļāļĄāļēāļĒāđ†āļ–ึāļ‡āļ™āļēāļ™āđ†āļŦāļ™āļˆāļ°āļĄāļē āđāļ•่āļ§่āļēāļŦāļēāļāļ§่āļēāļĄāļēāđāļĨ้āļ§āļĄัāļ™āļˆāļ°āđ€āļ›āļĨี่āļĒāļ™āđāļ›āļĨāļ‡āļ„ุāļ“āđ€āļ›็āļ™āļ„āļ™āļĄั่āļ‡āļ„ั่āļ‡āđ„āļ›āđƒāļ™āđ€āļĨāļ§āļ‚้āļēāļĄāļ„ืāļ™āļ­āļĒ่āļēāļ‡āļĒิ่āļ‡āļˆāļĢิāļ‡āđ† āđāļĨ้āļ§āļ็āļ„ุāļ“āļ็āđ„āļĄ่āļ­āļēāļˆāļˆāļ°āļŦāļēāļ­āļĒ่āļēāļ‡āļ™ี้āđ„āļ”้āđƒāļ™āđ€āļāļĄāļ­ื่āļ™āđ†āđƒāļ™āļ„āļēāļŠิāđ‚āļ™āļ­āļ­āļ™āđ„āļĨāļ™์āđāļ™่āđ†

    āđ€āļ›็āļ™āļĒัāļ‡āđ„āļ‡āļัāļ™āļš้āļēāļ‡ āļ āļēāļĒāļŦāļĨัāļ‡āļ—ี่āļ„ุāļ“āđ„āļ”้āļ­่āļēāļ™āļšāļ—āļ„āļ§āļēāļĄāļ‚āļ­āļ‡āļžāļ§āļāđ€āļĢāļēāđāļĨ้āļ§ āļšāļ­āļāđ€āļĨāļĒāļ§่āļēāļ„ุ้āļĄāļ—ี่āļˆāļ°āđ€āļĨ่āļ™āļĄāļēāļāļĄāļēāļĒāđ†āļĄีāļ‚้āļ­āļ”ีāļ—ี่āļĄāļēāļāļĄāļēāļĒāļ‚āļ™āļēāļ”āļ™ี้ āđāļĨ้āļ§āļ็āļĒัāļ‡āļĄāļēāļัāļšāļāļēāļĢāđƒāļŦ้āļšāļĢิāļāļēāļĢāļ—ี่āļ”ีāļ­ีāļ āļ–้āļēāļŦāļēāļāļ§่āļēāļ„ุāļ“āļ•้āļ­āļ‡āļāļēāļĢāđ€āļˆāļ­āļัāļšāļ„āļ§āļēāļĄāļŠāļ™ุāļāļŠāļ™āļēāļ™āļĢ่āļēāđ€āļĢิāļ‡āļĢāļ§āļĄāļ—ั้āļ‡āļ„āļ§āļēāļĄāļĄāļēāļāļĄāļēāļĒāļŦāļĨāļēāļĒāļ­ีāļāđ€āļĒāļ­āļ°āđāļĒāļ°āļ—ี่āļ„āļ­āļĒāļ„ุāļ“āļ­āļĒู่ āļˆāļģāļ•้āļ­āļ‡āđ€āļĨืāļ­āļāļžāļ™ัāļ™āđ€āļāļĄ āļŠāļĨ็āļ­āļ•āļ­āļ­āļ™āđ„āļĨāļ™์āļšāļ™ pgslot āđ€āļžีāļĒāļ‡āđāļ„่āļ™ั้āļ™

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