XRP Update

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UPDATE -  November 11, 2017:
I NO LONGER AGREE WITH THE BELOW ANALYSIS.
I have updated my thoughts and valuation in the following note:
 http://cryptoizzy.blogspot.com.au/2017/11/goodbye-to-ripple.html

 I am leaving this note here, but please take this warning and review my new piece.
Best,
Izzy






I'v gotten a lot of good feedback on my XRP post, and am keen to share additional thoughts about other Cryptos - some of which (as I go through the work) have gotten me even more excited than XRP.

That being said, in the course of my work on other coins, I've come across some information which leads me to question one of the assumptions I made in the XRP analysis: namely the rate of adoption of the Ripple system by banks.

In the article, I assumed 35% market share by 2020, which while  possible, I now personally believe bears more risk than when I initially wrote the article.

No one knows that actual adoption will be - only time will tell. But as I've considered aditional risks, I felt an obligation to share at least the leaning of my updated thinking.

I am still encouraged by the fact that if you agree the rest of the 'math' in the analysis, even a markedly lower bank-adoption rate can still yield a value higher than current trading levels. Plus, there are of course many other paths true value may be realized within XRP. Nevertheless, I reiterate that you should do your own work to the best of your ability, and my intention was to share a methodology for value assessment.

P.S. In my other post just now I allude to a coin whose legitimacy I seriously question (and which will be forthcoming). That coin is NOT ripple. The degree to which the business model for Ripple succeeds will (in my opinion,) be a factor of many variables - but I do not believe fraud or investor deception plays any part in it.

Best Regards,
Izzy



Comments

  1. Anonymous12 June 2017 at 01:41

    That fraud coin is STRATIS

    ReplyDelete
  2. Unknown29 August 2017 at 07:27

    Izzy,

    Do you have any additional thoughts on the total supply of XRP that will be outstanding in 2020? I think that's a huge variable in determining the ultimate per unit value. I've heard varying thoughts on that subject. Some say that the banks that own and support it don't want the value to increase too much (to support your functional utility argument).

    Thanks,
    Karthik

    ReplyDelete

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