Valuing Cryptocurrencies - An Approach
Valuing Cryptocurrencies - An Approach
There are well over 1,000 cryptocurrencies floating around
right now, and it’s my sincere belief that many, if not most of them, will
fail. This becomes especially evident when a little bit of thoughtful research
is done, and one sees that many of them either have no realistic plans for
success (beyond a pump-and-dump of the coin), and/or offer no meaningful value
that is not already well represented in the crypto-space. So how to tell them apart? Well, I’ll share
my personal approach, which I hope you find interesting and maybe useful. I
suspect that applying this methodology might lead one to ‘miss out’ on some
rip-roaring rally on a coin that might otherwise have been speculated in, but
hopefully it will also keep one from waking up one morning to discover the coin
thought to be a sure thing for a quick in-and-out trade has dropped
precipitously in value. Different people need different things to sleep at
night. Diff'rent strokes for Diff'rent folks.
Step 1: Ask
(and attempt to answer the question) – Is the goal of this cryptocurrency to be considered money? In other words,
does the coin hope to be considered a broad and fundamental unit of money/currency that will be used to effect
value transfers?
The primary examples of coins that attempt to ‘be money’
are:
Bitcoin, Bitcoin cash, Litecoin, Dash & Monero.
The goal of eventually becoming money is potentially incredibly valuable. The prize is the
displacement of a significant percentage of existing forms of money (namely,
Fiat currencies issued by governments, whether they be dollars, euros, yen,
etc.) and that achievement would be stupendous in its implications – both
socially and financially.
The current measure of all transactional ‘money’ in the
world (an economic measure called M3) is approximately $80 trillion. If any one
of the 5 coins above mentioned are to be successful as ‘money’ and garner a
significant share of M3, it would have astounding implications for the value of
the coins. The (very rough) table below shows that ‘upside’ from current values
should the individual coins achieve a 20% of M3 ‘market share’ range from ~50
times current value for Bitcoin, to over 2,600 times current value for Monero.
This is in stark contrast to coins that do not
aspire to be money which we will explore shortly.
(Please excuse the horrendously scrappy cut/paste for the
below table.. the gist of it should be clear though)
So now we come to a fork in the road – was the answer to
Step 1 a ‘yes’, or a ‘no’? If ‘yes’, then proceed to Step 2. If ‘no’, proceed
to Step 3.
Step 2: Check
the coin under consideration for its current and prospective ability to satisfy
the criteria of ‘moneyness’.
I won’t go into a full re-hash of the concept of moneyness
here, as you can read plenty about it in TPOM and The Bitcoin Flaw, but in short,
the coins need to satisfy the 4 main aspects of sound money – Store of Value,
Unit of Account Medium of Exchange and Fungibility[1].
We check for its moneyness under the simple premise that if
a coin lacks any critical aspect of
moneyness, it will ultimately fail and hand the mantle of ‘money’ over to a
coin that succeeds. My take on all the above mentioned coins (in case you didn't know) is that i far prefer Monero as the best candidate. In any case, you can decide for yourself and are free to disagree
and/or hedge your bets.
The math though for valuation in this scenario becomes
trivial (although determination of input values is not). If the coin in
question passes the test for being surviving money, then we may apply the
valuation technique as {[Expected % of M3] x [M3 Value] }/ [number of coins
outstanding].. all present-valued.
Step 3:
Determine what value is being created by the coin and/or coin ecosystem.
*Note: you should only be here in step 3 if you answered no
to the question in Step 1. I realize that some people might make an argument
for ETH being in both places, but I disagree for reasons I won’t expand on
here. Feel free to email me if you’d like to discuss.
Since the coin we are now looking at is not a ‘money’ prospect, we can apply much more traditional valuation
metrics – without needing to understand some bigger-picture and subtler aspects
of global macroeconomics. Hooray!
We simply need to ask, what value is being created?
Let’s take what has been a contentious coin for me as an
example: Ripple (technically XRP, the coin).
Ripple, as a medium of exchange that can facilitate lower
cost cross-border transactions, offers the prospect for enormous value to be
released. After all, there are many billions of dollars currently spent (and
arguably wasted) in the current archaic and cumbersome international money
transfer market. We can even ascribe theoretical dollars to it, so let’s do that:
Let’s say the Annual cross-border international transfer
market is $200 trillion annually, and let’s further assume the average fee
savings by replacing the old archaic systems with the disruption of blockchain-type
processes will be a clean 5% - that’s $10 trillion a year!
So maybe this mean that Ripple’s coin, XRP, if Ripple were
to garner a 100% market share should be worth $10 trillion?! Not so fast there
cowboy.
Now that we’ve identified the potential value-creation/release
aspect, we need to make a critical
next-step jump – and this leads us to Step 4. Of course, if we haven’t been
able to identify any monetary value
being created at all, we can stop here and most likely abandon the coin from
consideration.
Step 4: Ask –
To WHERE and/or WHOM does the value created in Step 3 Accrue?
In Ripple’s case, most of the value accrues to two parties –
competitive pressures will see to that – either the banks themselves who no
longer have to bear the cost-burden of an antiquated system, or the customers who will experience much lower
costs and fees.
But wait a minute – we are valuing a coin here – so the real question (between the lines) is something a
little different.. let’s make this our step 5.
Step 5: Ask –
How does value created by the coin/ecosystem/etc. necessarily accrue to the coin
under question? And by how much?
Let’s stick with Ripple for the example.
I’ve never argued that Ripple wasn’t a good idea. While I still
question the uptake and competitive response, and many people have enjoyed an ‘I
told you so!’ after a few recent announcements and a big price move – I have
yet to hear anyone address this Step 5 question (even though it has been asked
of some people who claim to be the experts).
Just because a coin/currency/etc. creates value as a whole,
for an investment in the coin to be
based on solid fundamentals, there has to be a demonstration as to why the coin
needs to be worth more.
Good news for XRP investors – I definitely see a scenario
where it needs to maintain a value. The (potentially) bad news – that value could
be a lot lower than current levels.
Rather than rewrite it, I’ll just quote my other post (the
Postscript to ‘Goodbye to Ripple’… even leaving in my 2-glasses-of-wine snarky
comment):
Most people (not
all) have conceded that Ripple is not about
being ‘money’, but a functional tool. In that case, we ought to value it on
that metric – how much value is being created, and to where does it accrue?
Let’s use some
numbers.
$207 trillion
annual market size.
Assume evenly
distributed, that’s about $500 billion moving a day.
There are 86,400
seconds in a day. Again, assuming smooth distribution if XRP was 100% used as
transfer medium in the market, every 5 seconds (on average) it would have to
move about $30 million. If we assume it needs that FULL balance to be held in
15 different currencies, that’s a required market float of 30million x 15 =
$450 MILLION (that’s million with an M). Heck – let’s say that we’re off by an
order or magnitude somehow and multiply by 10. Now we’re back to billions - $4.5
billion – or less than half the current capitalization.
Is there a fault in
that example? I honestly don’t know. I just spent 5 minutes working it out and
have had a couple of glasses of wine. My point is, talking about value
being created and that same value accruing
to the benefit of the actual coins is talking about two very different
things. It’s the same thing as a company you might love, but whose stock is
awfully priced.
While people may love-love-love XRP as a trade right now, if
it is going to maintain its value, it has to be demonstrated in theory perhaps, but ultimately in practice
why it needs to be valued more than,
for instance the $4.5 billion in my example above. Otherwise its value is being
propped up by raw speculation - not buttressed by any fundamental value. This
in turn leaves it subject to significant (and perhaps inevitable) correction risk.
I didn’t really want this to be about Ripple, so I’ll just
add one more thing before moving on – in the cryptomania we’re seeing today,
going up in value is not proof that a fundamental valuation is sound. Maybe
there are other fundamental justifications for why XRP needs to be valued where it is (outside of a speculation medium).
If there is/are, I have yet to see it/them. If you genuinely see a way to correct
me, then by all means, don’t waste time leaving Anonymous blog comments – send it
to me and convince me. I guarantee I’ll issue an ‘eating my hat’ mea-culpa report
highlighting the error(s) in my (now current) thinking.
So – back to how value accrues to a coin in general.
If you cannot identify how value must accrue to a coin (whether as a function of facilitating a
smart-contract, money transfer, or otherwise) then you are very likely veering
away from investing and toward speculation.
Hey, there’s nothing wrong with gambling/speculation per se.
I’ve personally never been really good at it. Some people are. But before you
convince yourself that you are blessed with innate intuitive trading sense,
consider this: All those glorious and impressive Las Vegas hotels and monuments
were paid for by losers – and though I’ve
personally known a few paper-millionaires in the dot-com boom, each of them quietly
went back to their day jobs a few years later.
As the saying goes: Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs
get slaughtered.
Good luck!
Izzy
EDIT: March 2018: if you've read up until this point, then hopefully you have enjoyed it. Considering how many hits this page gets, i thought i would mention that if you are interested in engaging me for cryptocurrency education or advisory, please feel free to email me. I've always happy to have a chat.
[1] Technically speaking fungibility really falls under the purview of Medium of
Exchange. I’m happy to leave it as a 4th criterion though given it’s incredible
importance and difficulty of grasp for many, which I think may be remedied by
calling extra attention to it.
Thanks for sharing...
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ReplyDeleteA revolutionary immutable community financial system ��built on #Tron smart contracts blockchain��. ��Verified contact ��and transparent protocol with clearly defined logic��, Tronpin is self-sustainable ��with a balance of gaming��, networking��, and investing��. Participants interact directly with #Tronpin smart contract�� & settlements happen in real-time ⏱with no central custodian��. With community built trustless system⚖️, you can play��♂️, network ��and earn ��with an ease of mind!
Visit: https://www.tronpin.com/
💎DCTDAO X Trustswap Marketing & Incubation Partnership💎
ReplyDeleteThe news you have all been waiting for is here. DCTDAO’s biggest partnership yet is launching to take the DCTD platform to new heights.
Trustswap will officially onboard DCTDAO onto its incubation platform, one of only a few projects ever to join, assisting with marketing, branding, product awareness and even technological development.
🎉 Wait there’s MORE, with the incubation also comes a partnership agreement to onboard and suggest all Trustswap IDO projects to list their tokens on the DCTDEX, cementing DCTDAO as the premier Gas-less, secure DEX for trading.
For more info about the incubation read on :
https://dctdao.medium.com/dctdao-joins-trustswap-incubator-program-90722f38bdff
EAT THE DIP FINANCE $EAT :chart_with_upwards_trend:
ReplyDeleteNew cryptocurrency meme today - just lunched.
38K MARKET CAP
LIQUIDITY LOCKED WITH UNICRYPT
RUG PROOF
FAIR LAUNCHED - NO PRESALE
TOKENOMICS
Total Supply: 857,375,000,000
35% burned
40% locked liquidity
10% Marketing
5% Team
Tax On Transactions
5% permanently burned
5% Redistribution
Visit: Https://www.eatthedip.finance
TG: @eatthedipfinance
Twitter: @eatthedip
Instagram: @eatthedipfinance
CHART
Https://poocoin.app/tokens/0x131daf4ee0c68962180a43713bcd3923c04d1820
CONTRACT ID
0x131daf4ee0c68962180a43713bcd3923c04d1820AVAILABLE NOW ON PANCAKE SWAP
Crypto Gaming Alliance begins CGA Coin’s free sale.
ReplyDeleteCGA that has successfully completed its first private sales is carrying out CGA Coin free sales with limit quantity with promoting exchange market ahead
More info : https://www.cgacoin.net/
The Magna Carter is a charter of liberties to which the English barons forced King John to give his assent in June 1215 at Runnymede. It is a document constituting a fundamental guarantee of rights and privileges.
ReplyDeleteMagna Carta is a BEP20 token with super high yield and liquidity generation tokenomics for the community. Magna Carta is created along with a purpose built forum No Rug Pull, which will provide this cryptocurrency with a purpose and use.
buy and sell cryptocurrency, Find safe moonshot projects, invest in rug proof mining pools, field farming and staking.
No Rug Pull forum will also enable users to exchange #MGN tokens for many crypto related digital good and services via Escrow payment.
As well as providing a decentralized exchange and a library of information for the growth of the community.
Name: Magna Carta
Symbol: MGN
Total Supply: 100,000,000,000,000
Certik - Audit coming Soon
Coin Gecko 🦎 & CMC Application
Contract address
0xF7C20bB6192d8469E67C858A5082AD55437F5eaD
10% Tax
2% burn 🔥 rate
8% community reward 💰
More info: https://magnacarta.finance/
Telegram: @magnacartatoken
Shiba Survived #BlackWednesday Animated NFT Lottery
ReplyDeleteJoin Here: https://gleam.io/xAmjL/shiba-survived-blackwednesday
The Animated NFT can be checked here:
https://www.bakeryswap.org/#/exchange/new-artworks/artworkInfo/24823/1/0
This NFT is extremely valuable due to its rarity and number of participants that will compete for it.
Only 1 piece of the Shiba Survived #BlackWednesday Animated NFT will ever be minted.
The winner will be contacted by email at the end of the contest. We will announce the winner of the lottery on livestream on 8. June 2021.
To know more about the project
visit: https://emcodex.org/
EgyptianDoge is a frictionless yield generation token hard-coded on its smart contract with a charity-based NFT marketplace.
ReplyDeleteBUY YDOGE ON PANCAKESWAP
More Info: https://cutt.ly/unONjTL
#EgyptianDoge #ico #exchange #token #nft #nfts #bnb #bsc #PANCAKESWAP
A community-focused decentralized transaction network
ReplyDeleteWe are a part of the newly emerging family!
Pekker is an Ethereum Token with a burn and redistribution system. 1.8% of each transaction is burned, and 0.2% is distributed as rewards to holders automatically and in real-time. Sit back, relax, and watch your Pekker balance grow every second!
To know more visit: https://www.pekker.org/
#ico #Pekker #Ethereum #Token #nft #nfts
Hi There,
ReplyDeleteThank you for sharing the knowledgeable blog with us I hope that you will post many more blog with us:-
CryptoSwap World is one of the first instant cryptocurrency exchanges to launch a Loyalty Program on the basis of a native token (SWAP).
Email:Cryptoswapworld@gmail.com
Click here for more information:- more info
D.AI.SY Opportunity
ReplyDeleteLearn about an exciting new crowdfunding project in the cryptocurrency space that smashed
every record ever made in the referral marketing and crowdfunding industry on day one!
● More than $150 Million dollars raised since launch
● More than 100,000 people in more than 100 countries contributed to the crowd fund
● The biggest financial technology development project in the world today
● Multiple income stream opportunity
This is YOUR opportunity to be part of history. Daisy is on track
to be a multi-billion dollar
project in 2021!
To join the program and learn more click on the following link
https://daisybiz.info/33596634
If you have any question or want to connect with me personally
you can contact me on:
Whatsapp
Australia +61 434352772
Telegram
@koalacryptogroup
Happy investing
Alex
Bittrex Global will list CRATOS on [Date], 2021
ReplyDeleteCRATOS is an ERC-20 utility token designed to facilitate citizen participation in the CRATOS app, a real-time live vote platform.
[Release date], 2021 – Bittrex Global, the major cryptocurrency exchange, announced it would list CRATOS(CRTS) on [listing date].
Bittrex Global said it would list CRATOS (CRTS) with a trading pair, CRTS/USDT. In addition, the users can start trading from [time] (UTC+8) on [date], 2021. This listing would be the Cratos’s third listing after BitGlobal(Formerly Bithumb Global) and Uniswap V3.
Cratos is an ERC-20 utility token designed to facilitate citizen participation in the Cratos app, a real-time live vote platform that anyone can generate a vote and users can participate in the vote immediately, and the statistics of the results by gender and age would be displayed to the users to enhance the transparency of public opinion. And users can earn CRTS tokens by registration, creating a vote, leaving a comment, and participating in a vote.
The Cratos app was designed to solve the issue that news by media and posts by online communities are biased. Sponsors of the media would have an influence on media to select the news that suits their taste. Online community users form a close community with like-minded people. With the transparency of the vote result, the Cratos will show the consensus of the public opinion. The Cratos tokens are given to the participants as a reward to promote their activities, which would lead to generating more accurate data.
Since its launch in December 2020, the Cratos app has achieved 220K+ downloads, 40K+ users, 17K+ vote items, and 15 mins or longer daily engagement time as of [release date]. 100 billion CRATOS tokens have been initially generated, and 36% of the initial supply has been allocated for rewards.
In 2022, Cratos is planning to expand its service to the global market.
About CRATOS
The CRATOS app is a real-time live vote platform launched in December 2020, and by far the app has accumulated 220K+ downloads, 40K+ users, and 17K+ vote items.
About Pharos Labs
Pharos Labs, registered in South Korea, is a blockchain-based company-builder to commercialize their business idea with blockchain technology and BasS(Blockchain-as-a-Service).
Bittrex Global (Link to the listing announcement)
TBA
Website
https://www.cratostoken.com
Contact
David Kang
david@cratostoken.com
+82 10 5287 6291
#Eclipton is a blockchain-powered Social Media platform that also offers a great opportunity to start and enjoy your freelancing career.
ReplyDeleteExcited, right? Want to know more about this freelancing feature of Eclipton?
Visit: https://eclipton.com/
#cryptocurrency #nft #nfts #blockoville #cryptocurrency #freelancer #freelancing
#blockchain #eclipton #blogger #blogging #socialmedia
SOLACIT Announces Its Arrival with the New DeFi Project, built up on the Solana Chain
ReplyDeleteTo know more visit: https://solacit.com/
#SOLACIT #defi #ico #bnb #bsc #nft #nfts #buynft
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Shootpad team is proud to announce their Decentralized Multichain IDO Launchpad Demo about to be released on the Cardano blockchain as the $SHOOT Token Seed Sale is still on going.
ReplyDeleteThe seed sale is an opportunity for early backers to purchase $SHOOT token at a lower price before its listing on major exchanges.
In order to participate in the Seed Sale, visit this link: https://sale.shootpad.io/
About ShootPad
Shootpad is a decentralized accelerator and incubation platform connecting early stage innovators and projects with our community of investors. SHOOTPAD view Hundreds of Cardano Native Token Seed Sale, pre-sale and ISPO powered by the utility token $SHOOT.
$SHOOT Token Seed Sale details
Seed sale allocation: 76,000,000
Seed sale price: 1 ADA = 570 $SHOOT Tokens
Minimum Buy Amount: 100 ADA
Maximum Buy Amount: 10,000 ADA
Note: Any amount below the minimum will be lost or result in not receiving the tokens.
How To Buy $SHOOT Tokens
Step 1: Purchase ADA from any cryptocurrency exchange company for example Coinbase or Binance and send them to your Cardano wallet.
Step 2: Visit the $SHOOT Token Sale Page here https://sale.shootpad.io/ and send your ADA to the provided wallet Address.
Step 3: $SHOOT tokens will be sent to the wallet address used in participating in the Seed Sale.
Social Media Handles:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/shootpad_io
Telegram Group: https://t.me/shootpad_io
Medium: https://shootpad-io.medium.com/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/shootpad.io/
Website: https://shootpad.io
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ReplyDeleteBitcoin is valuable because it is used as a form of money.
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ReplyDeleteThe NFT space is being disrupted by a new player making waves within the industry. EGO.com, an up-and-coming Cardano NFT marketplace, is barely a few weeks old but is already turning the heads of major retail and institutional investors for its promise to facilitate a “Digital Renaissance” in art. Analysts are closely watching the developments of this “crypto gem”.
ReplyDeleteEGO.com, a self-described decentralized creative realm for artists and collectors, has differentiated itself within the industry through its iconic name and innovative marketing strategies. The project has already established itself as a key player within the market for Cardano NFTs with a promise to facilitate “Digital Renaissance” in modern art.
Now, after taking into account feedback received from its community, it has released a sneak peak of its online platform, with a more professional and intuitive user interface designed to provide a radically better user experience.
The project has seen substantial interest from both investors and other projects within the NFT space. Although the project is barely a few weeks old, more than 25 projects have already committed to hosting their NFTs on EGO.com, while the private sale has been setting new records for retail investor participation. EGO.com is currently in the process of conducting a private sale until June 15, inviting private investors to participate by reaching out to sales@ego.com.
After having secured public sale rights on ADAX, a Cardano-based exchange, EGO.com will officially open the doors for all to participate on June 16 with an initial price set at $0.16. Early projections based on private sale data signal the high likelihood of an oversubscribed first round, in anticipation of an early post-sale ‘pop’ in token price.
Many analysts attribute the rapid pace of success to the fact that EGO.com has amassed a team of seasoned professionals with years of experience within the world of NFT, as well as within the fields of finance, marketing, and business operations. With Reuben Godfrey as CEO and his substantial expertise within NFT space, Fabien Arneodo as CSO and marketing guru, and Andrej Benc as CTO - the project’s C-class management already reflects the high level of experience EGO.com brings to the NFT space. Business operations are also supported by Patrik Lööf as Marketing Advisor, Mindaugas Stelmokas as Sales Manager, and Edward W. Mandel, so called King of NFTs in Miami, responsible for Business Development. Overall, the dedication of individual team members is clearly demonstrated by the numerous achievements we have already seen within the relatively short project timeframe.
About EGO.com
EGO.com is a fully decentralized creative realm built on the backbone of Plutus smart contracts. Led by a team of artists, art dealers, and DeFi professionals, EGO.com is harnessing the power of NFT technology to ensure that artists and collectors make the most of their digital assets. Artists can show off their prowess by minting NFTs of their artwork. Collectors can earn rewards from staking their Cardano-based NFT collections. Investors can hedge against short-term price fluctuations in style. Every step towards the ‘Digital Renaissance’ in art, EGO.com is there to provide professional, 360° degree support for all of your NFT needs.
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