Valuing Cryptocurrencies - An Approach

Valuing Cryptocurrencies - An Approach

There are well over 1,000 cryptocurrencies floating around right now, and it’s my sincere belief that many, if not most of them, will fail. This becomes especially evident when a little bit of thoughtful research is done, and one sees that many of them either have no realistic plans for success (beyond a pump-and-dump of the coin), and/or offer no meaningful value that is not already well represented in the crypto-space.  So how to tell them apart? Well, I’ll share my personal approach, which I hope you find interesting and maybe useful. I suspect that applying this methodology might lead one to ‘miss out’ on some rip-roaring rally on a coin that might otherwise have been speculated in, but hopefully it will also keep one from waking up one morning to discover the coin thought to be a sure thing for a quick in-and-out trade has dropped precipitously in value. Different people need different things to sleep at night. Diff'rent strokes for Diff'rent folks. 

Step 1: Ask (and attempt to answer the question) – Is the goal of this cryptocurrency to be considered money? In other words, does the coin hope to be considered a broad and fundamental unit of money/currency that will be used to effect value transfers?

The primary examples of coins that attempt to ‘be money’ are:
Bitcoin, Bitcoin cash, Litecoin, Dash & Monero.

The goal of eventually becoming money is potentially incredibly valuable. The prize is the displacement of a significant percentage of existing forms of money (namely, Fiat currencies issued by governments, whether they be dollars, euros, yen, etc.) and that achievement would be stupendous in its implications – both socially and financially.

The current measure of all transactional ‘money’ in the world (an economic measure called M3) is approximately $80 trillion. If any one of the 5 coins above mentioned are to be successful as ‘money’ and garner a significant share of M3, it would have astounding implications for the value of the coins. The (very rough) table below shows that ‘upside’ from current values should the individual coins achieve a 20% of M3 ‘market share’ range from ~50 times current value for Bitcoin, to over 2,600 times current value for Monero. This is in stark contrast to coins that do not aspire to be money which we will explore shortly.

(Please excuse the horrendously scrappy cut/paste for the below table.. the gist of it should be clear though)

So now we come to a fork in the road – was the answer to Step 1 a ‘yes’, or a ‘no’? If ‘yes’, then proceed to Step 2. If ‘no’, proceed to Step 3.

Step 2: Check the coin under consideration for its current and prospective ability to satisfy the criteria of ‘moneyness’.  

I won’t go into a full re-hash of the concept of moneyness here, as you can read plenty about it in TPOM and The Bitcoin Flaw, but in short, the coins need to satisfy the 4 main aspects of sound money – Store of Value, Unit of Account Medium of Exchange and Fungibility[1].

We check for its moneyness under the simple premise that if a coin lacks any critical aspect of moneyness, it will ultimately fail and hand the mantle of ‘money’ over to a coin that succeeds. My take on all the above mentioned coins (in case you didn't know) is that i far prefer Monero as the best candidate. In any case, you can decide for yourself and are free to disagree and/or hedge your bets.

The math though for valuation in this scenario becomes trivial (although determination of input values is not). If the coin in question passes the test for being surviving money, then we may apply the valuation technique as {[Expected % of M3] x [M3 Value] }/ [number of coins outstanding].. all present-valued.

Step 3: Determine what value is being created by the coin and/or coin ecosystem.

*Note: you should only be here in step 3 if you answered no to the question in Step 1. I realize that some people might make an argument for ETH being in both places, but I disagree for reasons I won’t expand on here. Feel free to email me if you’d like to discuss.

Since the coin we are now looking at is not a ‘money’ prospect, we can apply much more traditional valuation metrics – without needing to understand some bigger-picture and subtler aspects of global macroeconomics. Hooray!

We simply need to ask, what value is being created?

Let’s take what has been a contentious coin for me as an example: Ripple (technically XRP, the coin).
Ripple, as a medium of exchange that can facilitate lower cost cross-border transactions, offers the prospect for enormous value to be released. After all, there are many billions of dollars currently spent (and arguably wasted) in the current archaic and cumbersome international money transfer market. We can even ascribe theoretical dollars to it, so let’s do that:

Let’s say the Annual cross-border international transfer market is $200 trillion annually, and let’s further assume the average fee savings by replacing the old archaic systems with the disruption of blockchain-type processes will be a clean 5% - that’s $10 trillion a year!

So maybe this mean that Ripple’s coin, XRP, if Ripple were to garner a 100% market share should be worth $10 trillion?! Not so fast there cowboy.

Now that we’ve identified the potential value-creation/release aspect, we need to make a critical next-step jump – and this leads us to Step 4. Of course, if we haven’t been able to identify any monetary value being created at all, we can stop here and most likely abandon the coin from consideration.

Step 4: Ask – To WHERE and/or WHOM does the value created in Step 3 Accrue?

In Ripple’s case, most of the value accrues to two parties – competitive pressures will see to that – either the banks themselves who no longer have to bear the cost-burden of an antiquated system, or the customers who will experience much lower costs and fees.

But wait a minute – we are valuing a coin here – so the real question (between the lines) is something a little different.. let’s make this our step 5.

Step 5: Ask – How does value created by the coin/ecosystem/etc. necessarily accrue to the coin under question? And by how much?

Let’s stick with Ripple for the example.

I’ve never argued that Ripple wasn’t a good idea. While I still question the uptake and competitive response, and many people have enjoyed an ‘I told you so!’ after a few recent announcements and a big price move – I have yet to hear anyone address this Step 5 question (even though it has been asked of some people who claim to be the experts).

Just because a coin/currency/etc. creates value as a whole, for an investment in the coin to be based on solid fundamentals, there has to be a demonstration as to why the coin needs to be worth more.
Good news for XRP investors – I definitely see a scenario where it needs to maintain a value. The (potentially) bad news – that value could be a lot lower than current levels.

Rather than rewrite it, I’ll just quote my other post (the Postscript to ‘Goodbye to Ripple’… even leaving in my 2-glasses-of-wine snarky comment):

Most people (not all) have conceded that Ripple is not about being ‘money’, but a functional tool. In that case, we ought to value it on that metric – how much value is being created, and to where does it accrue?

Let’s use some numbers.

$207 trillion annual market size.
Assume evenly distributed, that’s about $500 billion moving a day.
There are 86,400 seconds in a day. Again, assuming smooth distribution if XRP was 100% used as transfer medium in the market, every 5 seconds (on average) it would have to move about $30 million. If we assume it needs that FULL balance to be held in 15 different currencies, that’s a required market float of 30million x 15 = $450 MILLION (that’s million with an M). Heck – let’s say that we’re off by an order or magnitude somehow and multiply by 10. Now we’re back to billions - $4.5 billion – or less than half the current capitalization.

Is there a fault in that example? I honestly don’t know. I just spent 5 minutes working it out and have had a couple of glasses of wine. My point is, talking about value being created and that same value accruing to the benefit of the actual coins is talking about two very different things. It’s the same thing as a company you might love, but whose stock is awfully priced.

While people may love-love-love XRP as a trade right now, if it is going to maintain its value, it has to be demonstrated in theory perhaps, but ultimately in practice why it needs to be valued more than, for instance the $4.5 billion in my example above. Otherwise its value is being propped up by raw speculation - not buttressed by any fundamental value. This in turn leaves it subject to significant (and perhaps inevitable) correction risk.

I didn’t really want this to be about Ripple, so I’ll just add one more thing before moving on – in the cryptomania we’re seeing today, going up in value is not proof that a fundamental valuation is sound. Maybe there are other fundamental justifications for why XRP needs to be valued where it is (outside of a speculation medium). If there is/are, I have yet to see it/them. If you genuinely see a way to correct me, then by all means, don’t waste time leaving Anonymous blog comments – send it to me and convince me. I guarantee I’ll issue an ‘eating my hat’ mea-culpa report highlighting the error(s) in my (now current) thinking. 

So – back to how value accrues to a coin in general.

If you cannot identify how value must accrue to a coin (whether as a function of facilitating a smart-contract, money transfer, or otherwise) then you are very likely veering away from investing and toward speculation.

Hey, there’s nothing wrong with gambling/speculation per se. I’ve personally never been really good at it. Some people are. But before you convince yourself that you are blessed with innate intuitive trading sense, consider this: All those glorious and impressive Las Vegas hotels and monuments were paid for by losers – and though I’ve personally known a few paper-millionaires in the dot-com boom, each of them quietly went back to their day jobs a few years later.

As the saying goes: Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered.

Good luck!

EDIT: March 2018: if you've read up until this point, then hopefully you have enjoyed it. Considering how many hits this page gets, i thought i would mention that if you are interested in engaging me for cryptocurrency education or advisory, please feel free to email me. I've always happy to have a chat.

[1] Technically speaking fungibility really falls under the purview of Medium of Exchange. I’m happy to leave it as a 4th criterion though given it’s incredible importance and difficulty of grasp for many, which I think may be remedied by calling extra attention to it.


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  42. Edufex is a world-leading blockchain platform providing a learning management system. It helps connect learners and educators, help them achieve their career goals with the numerous online courses and secure universal accepted blockchain certification to upgrade their job skills and advance their careers.

  43. A Bigfoot Sized Yield Farming Exchange on the Binance Smart Chain Yeti Exchange is ready to make its appearance soon on the market.
    Yeti Exchange is a decentralized exchange platform. It is also a DeFi platform where clients can stake their liquidity to earn Yeti tokens leveraging Pancakeswap’s infrastructure on the Binance Smart Chain. Yeti Exchange is the next generation yield farming on the Binance Smart Chain. Yeti Exchange gives you the biggest opportunity to earn by providing liquidity to the exchange, by staking tokens and earning rewards in $YETI Token.
    Telegram Group:

    #DeFi #Bigfoot #BSC #Pancakeswap #Token #Binance #nft #nfts

  44. $GROOOT is a decentralized BSC community token that plants trees with every transaction! 🌳

    Liquidity locked and team is doxxed!
    They have a unique donation mechanism with a tree wallet that allows to efficiently plant trees to give back to the environment.

    GROOOT has already planted 27k+ trees with a market cap of only 70k! 🌱

    Whitepaper and donations on the website:

    Join the community:


  45. HORNYFARM is an NSFW themed farm on the BSC with strong deflationary mechanics, sustainable high APY and…. stress-relieving NFT rewards
    The aim of HORNYFARM is to create a rather mature token farm that caters towards our investor’s true needs… their wallet and their “soul”…
    The primary token HORNY will provide a long-lasting price pump, with our climaxing burn mechanism you’ll be trying the try not to dump challenge.
    Holders of HORNY will have a chance of receiving unique stress-relieving NFTs. 5 NFTs will be dropped daily to 5 random holders, the more HORNY tokens you hold the higher chance of receiving a higher quality NFT

  46. Welcome to Mooni DeFi, we are on a journey to build spectacular products for the community, where the we want to reward the community by being one of the lego box of DeFi on Binance Smart Chain.
    Mooni DeFi is the incubator based on Binance Smart chain with innovative product launches, where community gets rewarded in ecosystem tokens.

    Our focus is to build innovative DeFi products for BSC and support fair launches for the community. The ecosystem consists of four main offerings initially, here are the products with launch dates.

    Mooni Token : Mooni token of Mooni deFi ecosystem, holding Mooni will give users voting rights for the development of ecosystem, also when you trade, each transaction has a 5% fee applied, which will be redistributed instantly to all holders of the Mooni token.​ The great thing about this mechanism is that holders will be earning rewards without staking or any interaction with smart contract. Mooni is also a governance plus utility token, using which the community can exercise rights on development of projects from our ecosystem.
    To Know More visit :

  47. Join the largest DeFi ICO in 2021!

    DeFi Payment Protocol that enables POS terminals on blockchains and brings consumer protection to crypto payments.
    Join Here :

    Initially scheduled for 90 days. Almost sold out half after only 9 days. Your chance to be part of it!

    The ICO will progress for a total of 100 phases. Each phase collects $250K and for each phase the token price will increase $0.01 until it reaches $1.20 at the end of the ICO in July.

    Rocket tokenomics: only 100M total supply.

    HIPS Merchant Protocol (HMP), the Hips Merchant Protocol Gateway (HMP- gateway) and the governing Merchant Token (MTO) is a solution that aims to introduce consumer protection concepts from the traditional card payment industry to any blockchain with support for smart contracts like Ethereum, Cardano (ADA), or Solana.

    We believe that the consumer-oriented features of the MTO are the missing piece for crypto payments to have a market penetration and mass-adoption among mainstream consumers," says John Cavebring, CEO of Hips.

    Merchant Token (MTO) is Hips Merchant Protocol's (HMP) native protocol token, currently issued on Ethereum following ERC-20 standard. HMP will escrow ERC20 tokens in Ethereum’s blockchain as a start, but the protocol will work similarly on other supported blockchains such as Cardano among others.

    “HIPS Merchant Blockchain is the native blockchain for HMP and Merchant Coin (MEO), which is the on-block native currency on the Hips Merchant Blockchain, and is optimised for real-time merchant transactions created for Payment Service Providers (PSP) and EFTPOS devices,” adds Cavebring.

    A widely adopted, completely on-chain Merchant Payment Protocol would need to have comparable transaction throughput like US exchanges such as the NYSE from an underlying blockchain in order to scale.

    “HIPS Merchant Blockchain’s near real-time transaction speeds are a vast improvement to the current blockchain response. Hips Merchant Protocol is not only built for Ethereum, but also on Solana, a blazingly fast public blockchain which can support over 50,000 transactions per second, has block times of 400 milliseconds and a transaction cost of roughly USD0.00001,” notes Cavebring.

  48. DonoToken is the first fully decentralized donation-focused cryptocurrency project designed for the community to invest in themselves and charities around the world. By buying and selling our token you will be contributing to saving animals, humans, and the planet.

    We are focused on continually making successful efforts for all of our community members as well as the world by giving back.

    Come join our incredible community! Earn passive income with our 1% market redistribution while helping the world be a better place. The act of simply buying or selling this cryptocurrency benefits both you and the world simultaneously.
    To know more visit:

  49. ��SafeZone (SafeZone.Finance) is an entirely community driven project.
    ��Completely Rug Free.

    �� Fair launch
    �� Auto-liquidity generated with every trade and locked for life
    �� Verified contract
    �� No Migrator Code

    With the SafeZone token there is no need to stake or lock up your tokens anywhere to receive rewards.
    Just hold SafeZone tokens in your wallet and watch your balance increase.
    The SafeZone tokenomics apply a special tax to every buy or sell of the tokens. 3% are redistributed back to holders while 2% are burned forever reducing the total supply.
    ❇️100% Community Driven❇️
    Community driven & fair launch. No Dev team tokens and participated in the fair launch with everyone else.

    �� Token Information:

    Token Name: SafeZone Token
    Token Symbol: SafeZone
    Token Type: #BEP-20 #BSC #Binance
    Total Supply: 1,000,000,000 $SafeZone

    Your website and other URLs

    �� Website: https://SafeZone.Finance
    �� Telegram:
    �� Telegram Announcement:
    �� Twitter:
    �� Medium:
    ☑️ Verified Contract on BSC:
    �� Bscscan:

    Translate to English
    Also, Need an article to make blog or thread postings.
    NB: If you cant provides an article I will use your website text to make thread & blogposts.

    �� Website: https://SafeZone.Finance

  50. ENEDEX: The first Polkadot Moonbeam crosschain DEX for energy trading providing an easy way to kickstart new projects and raise capital

    �� The ENEDEX Private Sale has now officially started. ��

    ��Pledgers will need to visit the ( ) website, and click on the ‘Private Sale’ tab to fill in the Private Sale Form.

    �� Please fill in full and a member of our team will follow up to complete the KYC.

    Join now, and be part of the Energy Trading revolution!

    Catch more of our stories in our channels below:
    �� Twitter:
    �� Medium:
    �� Telegram:
    �� Telegram Announcements:

  51. Zoomer A Community-driven project designed to reward long-term holders with every transaction in the Zoomer ecosystem. No farming, staking, or extra clicking required: simply hold Zoomer in your digital wallet and see the benefits as usage grows.

    Buy on PancakeSwap (Set Slippage 12%):

    Telegram: @ZoomerCommunity
    Twitter: @ZoomerCommunity

    Dx Liquidity Lock
    (2 Lockers for Extra Security; Can See the Lock for Yourself when BSC Wallet Connected to DxLock Site):
    Locker 1

    Locker 2

  52. SafeCovid is an autostaking platform for holders, a mini-game platform against covid19 anxiety, and to the future a nft historical museum around covid to keep in memory this historical period.
    BSC Contract address : 0xc82a5dd7904ad9dbdfdefe37e6bad6ea2977940c

    Buy Now:


  53. ✌️New partnerships, new trading opportunities✌️

    We are excited to announce that ExMarkets has gone into partnership with Car Coin Market, the world’s largest automotive crypto classified marketplace🤸‍♀️‍

    Car Coin Market is a live, working marketplace with active dealer partners that connects users to vehicle inventory that can be purchased using cryptocurrency. Car Coin Market is at the forefront of mainstream adoption in the US Auto Industry.

    The company is introducing Car Coin (CCM), its native ERC20 token that will enable users to purchase vehicles using cryptocurrency within a large network of forward-thinking auto dealers. Users can stake CCM and earn at 40% APY – helping pave the way for more buying power on your vehicle purchase!

    ➰ CCM IEO will be held on ExMarkets in the near future. The starting price is estimated to be $0.25 USD, and payment options are expected to include ETH, USDC, and BTC.


  54. $MFG World First #MFG #SupplyChain #Blockchain #Crypto #erc20 & #NFT #erc721 #tokenization for #space #aerospace #automotive #designers #engineers #3dmodelers #collectors of both Vintage and Novelty Designs for Rockets, Cars, Planes, Trains, Drones and More!
    Twitter: @mfgcoin
    Instagram: @mfgcoin

  55. "Mona Lisa Landscape Nft"
    To Place A Bid on Opensea Click Here

    We have designed digital art based on unique pieces of great historical and artistic value to create something exceptional. The paintings themselves could be a beautiful work of art that incorporates years of research, manual reconstruction procedures, and the latest technology.

  56. ProSwap is a trusted platform to buy and sell price protection for Crypto assets in decentralized way. We are the official Openhedge client for DeFi structured finance products.

    #ProSwap #Crypto #Defi #exchange #finance #nft #nfts

  57. ZipToken is a service that uses blockchain technology to host user shared files ANONYMOUSLY. This is possible thanks to our groundbreaking blockchain implementation that you can rely on more than any other file sharing website you ever encountered before. ZipToken encrypts ALL files you create with military grade encryption within a matter of microseconds! The encryption is working in coordination with the blockchain technology which ensures no third party involvement and complete anonymity. ZipToken accepts ZipTokens (ZIPIT) as a payment fee to the network and to provide the hosting services that we offer.

    How does ZipToken work?

    1. Create a MetaMask wallet.
    MetaMask wallet is a safe and easy wallet that can operate on the Binance Smart Chain which is the network where our service operates.

    2. Add the custom ZIPIT token.
    Add the custom ZIPPIT token with the contract address 0x35e55dbfde9f8d66e86e3e92c861698432d77ead.

    3. Go to


    Purchase ZIPIT on PancakeSwap:

  58. #CatJAM is a community driven DeFi Token with the sole purpose of rescuing and providing a safe haven for cats all over the world. Using the power of crypto to make a change. One pussy at a time

    #CatJAM #DeFi #Token #crypto #can #pussy #nft #nfts #bnb #btc

  59. 88Lotto is a lottery token based on the Binance Smart Chain. It gives investors the opportunity to win amazing prizes for simply holding the coin. Presale started here:
    Also Buy using metamask wallet
    More info:

    #88Lotto #lottery #token #Binance #BSC #coin #defi #nft #nfts

  60. Bostte Distributed Green Energy Trading Platform is a networkthat allows consumers to sell energy to their peers in atrustless environment. It is a new component of thedistributed economy that allows consumers to realizethe value of their investment in Distributed EnergyResources by enabling them to monetize their excessenergy in much the same way as other resource sharingbusiness platforms which allow people to monetize, for instance their car spaces, office spaces, air plane spaces and spare rooms. Bostte Blockchain‐ enabled P2P energy trading platform will transform energy networks into trading platforms and invoke a blockchain economy that moves away from bilateral retail arrangements to multi‐lateral trading ecosystems, preserving networks’ relevance to consumers. This will be achievable over the trustless blockchain platform.

    Buy From :

  61. Crypto Gaming Alliance begins CGA Coin’s free sale.
    CGA that has successfully completed its first private sales is carrying out CGA Coin free sales with limit quantity with promoting exchange market ahead.
    More info:

  62. Most secure and innovative Bitcoin P2P market to trade Bitcoin for cash with 0% trading fees, and up to 10% deposit bonuses in Bitcoin
    More info:

    #bitcoin #btc #trade #p2p #bnb #defi #token #nft #nfts



    💎Community has a vote! GAPT will be donating the contents of the charity wallet to an organization chosen by the community! Future Dapp development includes a lottery!💎

    🚀Name: GAPTT $GAPT🚀
    🚀Token Blockchain: BSC BEP-20🚀
    🚀Total Supply: 500,000,000,000,000🚀

    🔥Already Burned at DXSale Launch: 78,125,000,000,000🔥

    -10% transaction fee

    -3.4% redistributed to token holders
    -2.5% sold by the contract into BNB
    -2.5% of the GAPT tokens are automatically paired with the BNB and added as liquidity on Pancakeswap
    -0.5% is placed into a charity wallet
    -0.1% is placed into the community wallet
    -1% total supply burn for every transaction

    Liquidity locked for 10 years
    Buy on Pancakeswap:

    🚀Token Contract: 0x63a4644142CA6dc83CfE0E2bdba8d62174491fD8🚀


  64. RaveCoin
    A crypto alloy for the masses
    A recurring altcoin analogy is to think of litecoin as silver to bitcoin’s gold. In the same vein think of rave coin as a precious alloy, perhaps the bronze to litecoin’s silver or bitcoin’s gold. Precious in it’s own right, workable, malleable, valuable.


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