An Open CryptoCurrency Letter To PornHub Executives

Dear “PornHub Executives",
According to the Verge article, the cryptocurrency “Verge” will soon be accepted by Pornhub and affiliate sites.
As the Verge points out, the Verge cryptocurrency (which has no connection with the Verge) is anonymity-focused, which is why Pornhub executives say they chose it over other possible partners.
The story, as I understand it, is that Verge (the currency) paid Pornhub $2 million to accept its currency. If this is true, I have a message for these “Pornhub Executives”.
Fire whoever has given you the advice to accept this offer from Verge. It’s an economically unsound deal. The math is horrible, and you are getting screwed.
Here’s why – and I’m going to put by ‘business consulting hat’ on for a moment to explain it.
According to reports, Pornhub got about 28.5 billion visits in 2017. While I have very limited information beyond that number, let's make some rough assumptions to prove a point.
Let’s say that only 150,000,000 unique visitors came to Porn…

Monero: Dashing Ahead?

In general, I spend most of my attention on fundamental rather than technical analysis. Fundamental analysis is essentially valuing an asset (in this case a cryptocurrency) based upon the asset’s place and utility in the economy. If an asset is useful, and has a mechanism for reflecting or containing some part of the value created, then we can do work to determine a valuation. A clean and simple example of this is the formula I offer for how to value any Cryptocurrency which attempts to be ‘money’[1].  We might even say that fundamental analysis is the basis for investing.
Alternatively, technical analysis may be considered the basis for trading. It looks at trading activity of a particular asset and tries to find patterns in price and volume that the analyst hopes will be repeated in the future.  Generally speaking, while there are some legitimate conceptual benefits to technical analysis, most of what I see presented these days in that area is rather flawed. To the …

Seriously though – delete the Facebook App from your phone.

(This may not seem directly crypto-related... but it's actualy quite closely connected. If you don't see the linkage, I invite you to do some research on Monero which appreciates the need for privacy.)
I’m not telling you to not use Facebook.If you want to keep using it, by all means keep doing so on your desktops/laptops. If it doesn’t bother you that they mine you for data, track all your activity on the internet (and physical locations), filter your news-feeds so you only see the censored content they deem appropriate – then by all means go ahead (but if you want more reasons to ditch it altogether, check this out. Never mind that you might actually find more time to do other neat things... like engaging with the real world and stop exposing yourself to ridiculous, unrealistic and unhealthy depictions of reality).
But seriously, delete the App from your phone.
Why now? Well, if after this week’s Snowden revelations don’t convince you, I’m not sure what else to say.  So let’s …

Monero Valuation – Update and Refocus

Monero Valuation – Update and Refocus

It only took about 2 days after I shared some thoughts on Monero valuation that I regretted doing so. Various other responsibilities have kept me getting around to sharing my updated thoughts, but I’m glad to finally be doing so now, with this note.
My regret hasn’t been so much around making an embarrassing technical omission (which I pointed out in it). Even with that, the directional and order-of-magnitude conclusions were still largely intact, it was an interesting idea to explore for me, and I’ve had some fun follow up email exchanges concerning modifications and refinements.
My regret was publicly focusing at all on an association between Monero and DarkNet/Criminal activities.
At the same time as I’m first and foremost interested in the truth, I believe that there are responsible ways to share it as well as reckless and ill-conceived ways to do so. I don't think my article did a very good job on this front.

Monero Valuation Musings

EDIT: I neglected a critical aspect of this analysis by not paying proper attention to the concept of stock-vs-flow. I am especially grateful to the r/monero subscriber who very kindly and extremely quickly corrected me on these points. 

The net result, as it turns out, is still not too dissimilar from the results below... especially when variability of assumptions is high. I recommend you check out his response on the sub. 

I'll try leaving this article here (as a monument/remind to me of my error) but wrap it with the conclusion of, as he put it- 'broad acceptance in the global black market = moon for monero/privacy coins no matter how calculated.' 

note to self: entitling something 'musings' doesn't mean you can't scrub it better than you did here.


In the course of responding to a comment posted on my blog yesterday (response in the comments sect…

Valuing Cryptocurrencies - An Approach

Valuing Cryptocurrencies - An Approach
There are well over 1,000 cryptocurrencies floating around right now, and it’s my sincere belief that many, if not most of them, will fail. This becomes especially evident when a little bit of thoughtful research is done, and one sees that many of them either have no realistic plans for success (beyond a pump-and-dump of the coin), and/or offer no meaningful value that is not already well represented in the crypto-space.  So how to tell them apart? Well, I’ll share my personal approach, which I hope you find interesting and maybe useful. I suspect that applying this methodology might lead one to ‘miss out’ on some rip-roaring rally on a coin that might otherwise have been speculated in, but hopefully it will also keep one from waking up one morning to discover the coin thought to be a sure thing for a quick in-and-out trade has dropped precipitously in value. Different people need different things to sleep at night. Diff'ren…